Second District · New York

Research Briefing

2026-08-08 · research material only, not submission content

Unemployment Rate

4.10

▼ 0.10 vs prior

Fed Funds Effective Rate

3.63

— 0.00 vs prior

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.69

▲ 0.06 vs prior

Empire State Mfg Survey

15.60

▲ 9.90 vs prior

Dual Mandate Spotlight

Inflation and employment -- this is what the contest is actually judging you on. Everything else in this briefing is supporting context.

Inflation

Headline CPI ▾ compare

2026-06-01

332.57

+3.73%

+1.73 pts vs 2.0% target

Actual vs. expected: This reading is running +1.73 pts above the Fed's 2.0% target. Markets are currently pricing in average inflation of 2.22% over 5 years and 2.25% over 10 years (Treasury breakeven rates). Households surveyed by the University of Michigan expect 4.6% inflation over the next year. These are the legitimate free stand-ins for a 'consensus forecast' -- real Wall Street consensus data is paid/licensed and not available here.

Core CPI ▾ compare

2026-06-01

336.06

+2.81%

+0.81 pts vs 2.0% target

Actual vs. expected: This reading is running +0.81 pts above the Fed's 2.0% target. Markets are currently pricing in average inflation of 2.22% over 5 years and 2.25% over 10 years (Treasury breakeven rates). Households surveyed by the University of Michigan expect 4.6% inflation over the next year. These are the legitimate free stand-ins for a 'consensus forecast' -- real Wall Street consensus data is paid/licensed and not available here.

Headline PCE ▾ compare

2026-06-01

131.39

+3.67%

+1.67 pts vs 2.0% target

Actual vs. expected: This reading is running +1.67 pts above the Fed's 2.0% target. Markets are currently pricing in average inflation of 2.22% over 5 years and 2.25% over 10 years (Treasury breakeven rates). Households surveyed by the University of Michigan expect 4.6% inflation over the next year. These are the legitimate free stand-ins for a 'consensus forecast' -- real Wall Street consensus data is paid/licensed and not available here.

Core PCE (Fed's preferred gauge) ▾ compare

2026-06-01

130.27

+3.29%

+1.29 pts vs 2.0% target

Actual vs. expected: This reading is running +1.29 pts above the Fed's 2.0% target. Markets are currently pricing in average inflation of 2.22% over 5 years and 2.25% over 10 years (Treasury breakeven rates). Households surveyed by the University of Michigan expect 4.6% inflation over the next year. These are the legitimate free stand-ins for a 'consensus forecast' -- real Wall Street consensus data is paid/licensed and not available here.

Labor Market

Unemployment Rate (U-3) ▾ compare

2026-07-01

4.10

+0.00%

Actual vs. expected: No free live consensus-forecast source exists for this series, so as a naive baseline: the prior period was 4.2 (2026-06-01), actual came in at 4.1 (-0.1). That's a baseline, not a real forecast -- for an actual economist consensus, see the Philly Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/spf-release-dates).

Broader Unemployment (U-6) ▾ compare

2026-07-01

7.90

+2.60%

Actual vs. expected: No free live consensus-forecast source exists for this series, so as a naive baseline: the prior period was 7.9 (2026-06-01), actual came in at 7.9 (+0.0). That's a baseline, not a real forecast -- for an actual economist consensus, see the Philly Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/spf-release-dates).

Nonfarm Payrolls ▾ compare

2026-07-01

158,858.00

+0.20%

Actual vs. expected: No free live consensus-forecast source exists for this series, so as a naive baseline: the prior period was 158881.0 (2026-06-01), actual came in at 158858.0 (-23.0). That's a baseline, not a real forecast -- for an actual economist consensus, see the Philly Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/spf-release-dates).

Avg Hourly Earnings ▾ compare

2026-07-01

37.62

+3.15%

Actual vs. expected: No free live consensus-forecast source exists for this series, so as a naive baseline: the prior period was 37.6 (2026-06-01), actual came in at 37.62 (+0.02). That's a baseline, not a real forecast -- for an actual economist consensus, see the Philly Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/spf-release-dates).

Labor Force Participation ▾ compare

2026-07-01

61.40

-1.44%

Actual vs. expected: No free live consensus-forecast source exists for this series, so as a naive baseline: the prior period was 61.5 (2026-06-01), actual came in at 61.4 (-0.1). That's a baseline, not a real forecast -- for an actual economist consensus, see the Philly Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/spf-release-dates).

Initial Jobless Claims ▾ compare

2026-08-01

199,000.00

-11.95%

Actual vs. expected: No free live consensus-forecast source exists for this series, so as a naive baseline: the prior period was 198000.0 (2026-07-25), actual came in at 199000.0 (+1000.0). That's a baseline, not a real forecast -- for an actual economist consensus, see the Philly Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/spf-release-dates).

What do these mean?

Headline CPI: The Consumer Price Index measures how much prices changed for a broad basket of goods and services a typical household buys. It includes food and energy, which swing around a lot month to month -- so headline CPI can jump on an oil price spike even if underlying inflation hasn't moved. Still the number most news headlines mean by 'inflation.'
Core CPI: Same as CPI but with food and energy stripped out, since those two categories are volatile for reasons that have little to do with monetary policy (a hurricane hitting oil refineries isn't something the Fed can fix with interest rates). Core CPI is the better read on the *underlying* inflation trend.
Headline PCE: The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. Similar idea to CPI -- tracks price changes -- but it updates its basket of goods more often and covers a wider set of spending (including costs paid on someone's behalf, like employer-provided health insurance). Economists generally consider it a more accurate cost-of-living measure than CPI.
Core PCE (Fed's preferred gauge): PCE with food and energy excluded. This specific number is what the FOMC means when it talks about its 2% inflation target -- if you cite only one inflation figure in your presentation, judges will expect it to be this one, or for you to explain why you chose something else.
Unemployment Rate (U-3): The 'headline' unemployment rate: the share of people actively looking for work who haven't found any. It's the number everyone quotes, but it misses people who gave up looking (they're not counted as unemployed at all) and people stuck in part-time jobs who want full-time work.
Broader Unemployment (U-6): A wider measure that adds in those two groups U-3 misses: discouraged workers who stopped looking, and people working part-time only because full-time work isn't available. U-6 running much higher than U-3 can be a sign the labor market is weaker than the headline number suggests.
Nonfarm Payrolls: The net number of jobs added or lost across the economy in a month (farm work is excluded because it's seasonal in a way that distorts the count). This is one of the single most-watched releases in all of economics -- big surprises here can move markets within seconds.
Avg Hourly Earnings: How fast wages are growing. Matters because the Fed worries about a 'wage-price spiral' -- workers demand higher pay to keep up with prices, employers raise prices to cover the higher pay, repeat. Fast wage growth alongside high inflation is a hawkish signal; wage growth cooling toward ~3-3.5% is often read as consistent with the 2% inflation target.
Labor Force Participation: The share of working-age people who are either employed or actively job-hunting. This is what separates 'fewer people are unemployed' from 'fewer people are even trying to work' -- a falling unemployment rate looks great until you check whether it's because people left the labor force entirely.
Initial Jobless Claims: New unemployment insurance claims filed each week. Because it's weekly instead of monthly, it's the earliest read you'll get on labor market turning points -- claims tend to tick up before the monthly unemployment rate does. Watch the 4-week average rather than any single week, since weekly data is noisy (holidays, weather, one-off layoffs).

National Indicators

FRED, most recent observation per series.

Indicator	Latest	Value	Change
CPI (All Urban Consumers)	2026-06-01	332.57	▼ 1.41
Core PCE Price Index	2026-06-01	130.27	▲ 0.17
Unemployment Rate	2026-07-01	4.10	▼ 0.10
Nonfarm Payrolls	2026-07-01	158,858.00	▼ 23.00
Real GDP	2026-04-01	24,270.60	▲ 90.18
Fed Funds Effective Rate	2026-07-01	3.63	— 0.00
10-Year Treasury Yield	2026-08-06	4.69	▲ 0.06
2-Year Treasury Yield	2026-08-06	4.25	▲ 0.07
Initial Jobless Claims	2026-08-01	199,000.00	▲ 1,000.00
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	2026-06-01	49.50	▲ 4.70
Empire State Mfg Survey (General Business Conditions)	2026-07-01	15.60	▲ 9.90

What do these mean?

CPI (All Urban Consumers): Same series as Headline CPI above.
Core PCE Price Index: Same series as Core PCE above.
Unemployment Rate: Same series as Unemployment Rate (U-3) above.
Nonfarm Payrolls: The net number of jobs added or lost across the economy in a month (farm work is excluded because it's seasonal in a way that distorts the count). This is one of the single most-watched releases in all of economics -- big surprises here can move markets within seconds.
Real GDP: Total value of everything the economy produced, adjusted for inflation so you're comparing actual output, not just rising prices. It's the broadest growth measure that exists, but it's not what the Fed's dual mandate directly targets -- use it as context for 'is the economy overheating or slowing,' not as a headline number in your policy case.
Fed Funds Effective Rate: The actual interest rate the Fed controls -- this is the lever your team's recommendation is about. Every other indicator in this briefing is evidence for or against moving this rate up, down, or holding it.
10-Year Treasury Yield: The interest rate on 10-year U.S. government debt, set by markets, not the Fed directly. It reflects what investors expect for growth, inflation, and Fed policy over the next decade, and it anchors longer-term borrowing costs like mortgage rates. A useful check on whether markets agree with your read on where policy is headed.
2-Year Treasury Yield: Same idea as the 10-year, but shorter horizon, so it moves more closely with near-term Fed rate expectations. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yield (the '2s10s spread') going negative has preceded most U.S. recessions since the 1970s -- worth knowing even if you don't build your whole case on it.
Initial Jobless Claims: New unemployment insurance claims filed each week. Because it's weekly instead of monthly, it's the earliest read you'll get on labor market turning points -- claims tend to tick up before the monthly unemployment rate does. Watch the 4-week average rather than any single week, since weekly data is noisy (holidays, weather, one-off layoffs).
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A survey asking regular people how they feel about their finances and the economy. It's forward-looking (feelings can predict future spending) but noisy and sometimes disconnected from what people actually do with their money -- treat it as a soft, secondary signal, not hard evidence.

Second District Regional Data

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes) -- your differentiator against teams running purely national analysis.

surveyDate	GACDISA	NOCDISA	SHCDISA	UOCDISA	DTCDISA	IVCDISA	PPCDISA	PRCDISA	NECDISA	AWCDISA	ASCDISA	GAFDISA	NOFDISA	SHFDISA	UOFDISA	DTFDISA	IVFDISA	PPFDISA	PRFDISA	NEFDISA	AWFDISA	CEFDISA	ASFDISA
2026-02-28	7.10	5.80	-1.00	9.10	4.00	7.10	49.10	22.20	4.00	2.10	-1.0	34.70	34.90	33.40	18.20	9.10	8.10	57.60	40.30	26.10	15.20	18.20	2.0
2026-03-31	-0.20	6.40	-6.90	10.80	13.70	6.90	36.60	21.40	5.80	1.90	-3.9	31.00	29.10	30.20	14.70	11.80	5.90	43.10	32.40	22.20	10.80	21.60	-2.0
2026-04-30	11.00	19.30	20.20	9.10	12.10	5.10	51.00	21.80	9.80	13.70	-10.1	19.60	24.80	17.70	7.10	8.10	-4.00	61.60	38.60	18.10	4.00	13.10	-8.1
2026-05-31	19.60	22.70	18.90	4.90	20.40	9.70	62.60	31.80	8.30	11.50	-10.7	33.50	30.10	26.60	7.80	1.00	1.90	62.10	43.60	20.60	-1.00	15.50	-10.7
2026-06-30	5.70	3.50	8.60	5.00	11.90	0.00	61.00	31.40	9.60	5.10	-13.9	30.10	32.50	32.20	8.90	7.90	8.90	59.40	51.60	20.90	7.90	10.90	-6.9
2026-07-31	15.60	22.20	24.40	5.00	13.00	4.00	52.30	27.60	11.40	2.80	-10.0	27.90	33.20	30.60	-3.00	-4.00	10.00	53.00	41.90	14.40	2.00	15.00	-8.0

Market Snapshot

yfinance, ~15-minute delayed.

Indicator	Symbol	Last	Prior	% Chg
S&P 500	^GSPC	7,757.64	7,709.96	▲ 0.62%
10Y Treasury Yield (index)	^TNX	4.66	4.67	▼ 0.21%
US Dollar Index	DX-Y.NYB	99.60	99.97	▼ 0.37%
Crude Oil (WTI)	CL=F	78.18	77.29	▲ 1.15%
Gold	GC=F	4,340.70	4,242.00	▲ 2.33%
2Y Treasury Yield (index)	^UST2Y	nan	nan	— nan%

What do these mean?

S&P 500: A stock index tracking 500 large U.S. companies. Not something the Fed targets, but a useful gauge of how markets are reacting to Fed communication and data surprises -- if you cite a Fed decision's market impact, this is usually the number people mean.
10Y Treasury Yield (index): Market quote for the 10-year yield -- see 10-Year Treasury Yield above.
US Dollar Index: Measures the dollar's strength against a basket of other major currencies. A stronger dollar tends to make imports cheaper (mild disinflationary pressure) but hurts U.S. exporters. Usually a secondary point unless your analysis specifically involves trade or global spillovers -- don't force it into your core argument if it doesn't fit.
Crude Oil (WTI): The benchmark U.S. oil price. Feeds directly into headline CPI/PCE (energy is a big chunk of the 'headline' basket) but is excluded from core measures. Useful mainly for explaining *why* headline and core inflation might be telling different stories in a given month.
Gold: Often called a 'safe haven' or inflation hedge, but its price is driven by a lot of things besides U.S. monetary policy (global demand, other central banks, geopolitical risk). Interesting as a sentiment/uncertainty gauge; weak as direct evidence for a rate call -- be cautious about leaning on it in front of judges.
2Y Treasury Yield (index): Market quote for the 2-year yield -- see 2-Year Treasury Yield above.

FOMC Communication Sentiment

No FOMC statement supplied -- rerun with --fomc-statement to include this section.