2026-08-08 · research material only, not submission content
Unemployment Rate
4.10
▼ 0.10 vs prior
Fed Funds Effective Rate
3.63
— 0.00 vs prior
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.69
▲ 0.06 vs prior
Empire State Mfg Survey
15.60
▲ 9.90 vs prior
Dual Mandate Spotlight
Inflation and employment -- this is what the contest is actually judging you on. Everything else in this briefing is supporting context.
Inflation
Headline CPI
2026-06-01
332.57
+3.73%
+1.73 pts vs 2.0% target
Core CPI
2026-06-01
336.06
+2.81%
+0.81 pts vs 2.0% target
Headline PCE
2026-06-01
131.39
+3.67%
+1.67 pts vs 2.0% target
Core PCE (Fed's preferred gauge)
2026-06-01
130.27
+3.29%
+1.29 pts vs 2.0% target
Labor Market
Unemployment Rate (U-3)
2026-07-01
4.10
+0.00%
Broader Unemployment (U-6)
2026-07-01
7.90
+2.60%
Nonfarm Payrolls
2026-07-01
158,858.00
+0.20%
Avg Hourly Earnings
2026-07-01
37.62
+3.15%
Labor Force Participation
2026-07-01
61.40
-1.44%
Initial Jobless Claims
2026-08-01
199,000.00
-11.95%
What do these mean?
Headline CPI
The Consumer Price Index measures how much prices changed for a broad basket of goods and services a typical household buys. It includes food and energy, which swing around a lot month to month -- so headline CPI can jump on an oil price spike even if underlying inflation hasn't moved. Still the number most news headlines mean by 'inflation.'
Core CPI
Same as CPI but with food and energy stripped out, since those two categories are volatile for reasons that have little to do with monetary policy (a hurricane hitting oil refineries isn't something the Fed can fix with interest rates). Core CPI is the better read on the *underlying* inflation trend.
Headline PCE
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. Similar idea to CPI -- tracks price changes -- but it updates its basket of goods more often and covers a wider set of spending (including costs paid on someone's behalf, like employer-provided health insurance). Economists generally consider it a more accurate cost-of-living measure than CPI.
Core PCE (Fed's preferred gauge)
PCE with food and energy excluded. This specific number is what the FOMC means when it talks about its 2% inflation target -- if you cite only one inflation figure in your presentation, judges will expect it to be this one, or for you to explain why you chose something else.
Unemployment Rate (U-3)
The 'headline' unemployment rate: the share of people actively looking for work who haven't found any. It's the number everyone quotes, but it misses people who gave up looking (they're not counted as unemployed at all) and people stuck in part-time jobs who want full-time work.
Broader Unemployment (U-6)
A wider measure that adds in those two groups U-3 misses: discouraged workers who stopped looking, and people working part-time only because full-time work isn't available. U-6 running much higher than U-3 can be a sign the labor market is weaker than the headline number suggests.
Nonfarm Payrolls
The net number of jobs added or lost across the economy in a month (farm work is excluded because it's seasonal in a way that distorts the count). This is one of the single most-watched releases in all of economics -- big surprises here can move markets within seconds.
Avg Hourly Earnings
How fast wages are growing. Matters because the Fed worries about a 'wage-price spiral' -- workers demand higher pay to keep up with prices, employers raise prices to cover the higher pay, repeat. Fast wage growth alongside high inflation is a hawkish signal; wage growth cooling toward ~3-3.5% is often read as consistent with the 2% inflation target.
Labor Force Participation
The share of working-age people who are either employed or actively job-hunting. This is what separates 'fewer people are unemployed' from 'fewer people are even trying to work' -- a falling unemployment rate looks great until you check whether it's because people left the labor force entirely.
Initial Jobless Claims
New unemployment insurance claims filed each week. Because it's weekly instead of monthly, it's the earliest read you'll get on labor market turning points -- claims tend to tick up before the monthly unemployment rate does. Watch the 4-week average rather than any single week, since weekly data is noisy (holidays, weather, one-off layoffs).
National Indicators
FRED, most recent observation per series.
Indicator
Latest
Value
Change
CPI (All Urban Consumers)
2026-06-01
332.57
▼ 1.41
Core PCE Price Index
2026-06-01
130.27
▲ 0.17
Unemployment Rate
2026-07-01
4.10
▼ 0.10
Nonfarm Payrolls
2026-07-01
158,858.00
▼ 23.00
Real GDP
2026-04-01
24,270.60
▲ 90.18
Fed Funds Effective Rate
2026-07-01
3.63
— 0.00
10-Year Treasury Yield
2026-08-06
4.69
▲ 0.06
2-Year Treasury Yield
2026-08-06
4.25
▲ 0.07
Initial Jobless Claims
2026-08-01
199,000.00
▲ 1,000.00
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
2026-06-01
49.50
▲ 4.70
Empire State Mfg Survey (General Business Conditions)
2026-07-01
15.60
▲ 9.90
What do these mean?
CPI (All Urban Consumers)
Same series as Headline CPI above.
Core PCE Price Index
Same series as Core PCE above.
Unemployment Rate
Same series as Unemployment Rate (U-3) above.
Nonfarm Payrolls
The net number of jobs added or lost across the economy in a month (farm work is excluded because it's seasonal in a way that distorts the count). This is one of the single most-watched releases in all of economics -- big surprises here can move markets within seconds.
Real GDP
Total value of everything the economy produced, adjusted for inflation so you're comparing actual output, not just rising prices. It's the broadest growth measure that exists, but it's not what the Fed's dual mandate directly targets -- use it as context for 'is the economy overheating or slowing,' not as a headline number in your policy case.
Fed Funds Effective Rate
The actual interest rate the Fed controls -- this is the lever your team's recommendation is about. Every other indicator in this briefing is evidence for or against moving this rate up, down, or holding it.
10-Year Treasury Yield
The interest rate on 10-year U.S. government debt, set by markets, not the Fed directly. It reflects what investors expect for growth, inflation, and Fed policy over the next decade, and it anchors longer-term borrowing costs like mortgage rates. A useful check on whether markets agree with your read on where policy is headed.
2-Year Treasury Yield
Same idea as the 10-year, but shorter horizon, so it moves more closely with near-term Fed rate expectations. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yield (the '2s10s spread') going negative has preceded most U.S. recessions since the 1970s -- worth knowing even if you don't build your whole case on it.
Initial Jobless Claims
New unemployment insurance claims filed each week. Because it's weekly instead of monthly, it's the earliest read you'll get on labor market turning points -- claims tend to tick up before the monthly unemployment rate does. Watch the 4-week average rather than any single week, since weekly data is noisy (holidays, weather, one-off layoffs).
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
A survey asking regular people how they feel about their finances and the economy. It's forward-looking (feelings can predict future spending) but noisy and sometimes disconnected from what people actually do with their money -- treat it as a soft, secondary signal, not hard evidence.
Second District Regional Data
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes) -- your differentiator against teams running purely national analysis.
surveyDate
GACDISA
NOCDISA
SHCDISA
UOCDISA
DTCDISA
IVCDISA
PPCDISA
PRCDISA
NECDISA
AWCDISA
ASCDISA
GAFDISA
NOFDISA
SHFDISA
UOFDISA
DTFDISA
IVFDISA
PPFDISA
PRFDISA
NEFDISA
AWFDISA
CEFDISA
ASFDISA
2026-02-28
7.10
5.80
-1.00
9.10
4.00
7.10
49.10
22.20
4.00
2.10
-1.0
34.70
34.90
33.40
18.20
9.10
8.10
57.60
40.30
26.10
15.20
18.20
2.0
2026-03-31
-0.20
6.40
-6.90
10.80
13.70
6.90
36.60
21.40
5.80
1.90
-3.9
31.00
29.10
30.20
14.70
11.80
5.90
43.10
32.40
22.20
10.80
21.60
-2.0
2026-04-30
11.00
19.30
20.20
9.10
12.10
5.10
51.00
21.80
9.80
13.70
-10.1
19.60
24.80
17.70
7.10
8.10
-4.00
61.60
38.60
18.10
4.00
13.10
-8.1
2026-05-31
19.60
22.70
18.90
4.90
20.40
9.70
62.60
31.80
8.30
11.50
-10.7
33.50
30.10
26.60
7.80
1.00
1.90
62.10
43.60
20.60
-1.00
15.50
-10.7
2026-06-30
5.70
3.50
8.60
5.00
11.90
0.00
61.00
31.40
9.60
5.10
-13.9
30.10
32.50
32.20
8.90
7.90
8.90
59.40
51.60
20.90
7.90
10.90
-6.9
2026-07-31
15.60
22.20
24.40
5.00
13.00
4.00
52.30
27.60
11.40
2.80
-10.0
27.90
33.20
30.60
-3.00
-4.00
10.00
53.00
41.90
14.40
2.00
15.00
-8.0
Market Snapshot
yfinance, ~15-minute delayed.
Indicator
Symbol
Last
Prior
% Chg
S&P 500
^GSPC
7,757.64
7,709.96
▲ 0.62%
10Y Treasury Yield (index)
^TNX
4.66
4.67
▼ 0.21%
US Dollar Index
DX-Y.NYB
99.60
99.97
▼ 0.37%
Crude Oil (WTI)
CL=F
77.08
77.29
▼ 0.27%
Gold
GC=F
4,401.30
4,242.00
▲ 3.76%
2Y Treasury Yield (index)
^UST2Y
nan
nan
— nan%
What do these mean?
S&P 500
A stock index tracking 500 large U.S. companies. Not something the Fed targets, but a useful gauge of how markets are reacting to Fed communication and data surprises -- if you cite a Fed decision's market impact, this is usually the number people mean.
10Y Treasury Yield (index)
Market quote for the 10-year yield -- see 10-Year Treasury Yield above.
US Dollar Index
Measures the dollar's strength against a basket of other major currencies. A stronger dollar tends to make imports cheaper (mild disinflationary pressure) but hurts U.S. exporters. Usually a secondary point unless your analysis specifically involves trade or global spillovers -- don't force it into your core argument if it doesn't fit.
Crude Oil (WTI)
The benchmark U.S. oil price. Feeds directly into headline CPI/PCE (energy is a big chunk of the 'headline' basket) but is excluded from core measures. Useful mainly for explaining *why* headline and core inflation might be telling different stories in a given month.
Gold
Often called a 'safe haven' or inflation hedge, but its price is driven by a lot of things besides U.S. monetary policy (global demand, other central banks, geopolitical risk). Interesting as a sentiment/uncertainty gauge; weak as direct evidence for a rate call -- be cautious about leaning on it in front of judges.
2Y Treasury Yield (index)
Market quote for the 2-year yield -- see 2-Year Treasury Yield above.
FOMC Communication Sentiment
No FOMC statement supplied -- rerun with --fomc-statement to include this section.